Is Now a Good Time to Buy and Hold BHP Shares?

Here is what the future of BHP shares might look like as the company is poised to benefit from copper exposure and long-term commodity megatrends.

BHP Group Limited (ASX: BHP)

BHP Group Limited (ASX: BHP) is one of the world’s most important mining companies and still has attention from long term investors who want exposure to copper along with iron ore and other commodities linked to industrial growth and electrification.

Investors have historically viewed BHP as one of the strongest large-cap mining companies globally because of its diversified commodity portfolio along with disciplined capital allocation and ownership of Tier 1 mining assets.

The company stated that copper EBITDA contribution has more than doubled since FY23 and now accounts for 51% of EBITDA which highlights the rising importance of copper within the business. This is significant because global copper demand is expected to rise a lot over the next decade.

The company at the time of writing has a market capitalisation of $307.12 billion along with a fully franked annual dividend yield of 3.24% and a price/earnings ratio of 21.4.

According to the company’s operational review for the nine months ended 31 March 2026, BHP reported solid production results across major divisions including copper and iron ore. Total copper production reached 1,460.9 kt during the period while iron ore production rose 2% to 196.6 Mt compared with the prior corresponding period. Management now expects FY26 copper production to finish in the upper half of guidance which is important because copper is one of BHP’s key long-term growth areas.

One of the company’s biggest competitive strengths is its low-cost operating position. Management stated that BHP’s best-in-class operation of Tier 1 assets has consistently supported stronger cash margins across commodity cycles. This is important because mining is a cyclical industry and businesses with lower operating costs usually handle downturns far better than weaker competitors. BHP also said that its average EBITDA margins during the past 25 years have exceeded 50% which is very impressive.

Outlook

Management is currently advancing several large copper projects globally as part of a wider strategy to achieve 3% to 4% copper equivalent CAGR production growth through to 2035.

The Escondida New Concentrator project alone is expected to require investment between US$4.4 billion and US$5.9 billion and could eventually add between 220 ktpa and 260 ktpa of copper production. 

Resolution Copper stands out because management described it as one of the world’s largest untapped high-grade copper resources.

These projects may require years to fully develop although they could become extremely valuable over the long term if copper prices stay elevated because of structural supply shortages.

Importantly many competitors are finding it difficult to grow copper production in a meaningful way.

BHP specifically highlighted that several major mining peers have reduced copper production guidance in recent years while BHP has increased its own copper production outlook.

This may indicate that the company is entering a period where it can capture additional market share in one of the world’s most important commodities. Another key factor is balance sheet strength as cash generation remains a major advantage because mining projects require significant capital and companies with weaker balance sheets often struggle during downturns. 

I think BHP is one of the highest-quality mining companies globally for long-term investors who seek exposure to copper and iron ore etc.

The company owns world-class assets and continues to build a major copper growth pipeline which could support earnings growth during the next decade.

There are still risks of course. Commodity prices are cyclical and earnings can fluctuate significantly depending on global economic conditions, energy prices and geopolitical developments. Iron ore prices especially remain sensitive to China’s property market and infrastructure activity. BHP could remain a strong long-term compounder for investors throughout the next decade and beyond.

(Source: Company Announcements)